Dick Selma played for five teams over a largely undistinguished ten-year Major League career. The 1970 Philadelphia Phillies finished fifth in their division, only a half game out of last place. That was also the third in a string of seven straight losing seasons for the Phils. Somehow though, this journeyman pitcher on a mediocre team had an extraordinary, if largely forgotten season in 1970. That season deserves more attention.
More than Meets the Eye
Selma finished the 1970 season with an 8-9 record, a 2.75 ERA and 22 saves. Good, but not exceptional. However, he also had a Wins Above Replacement of 5.2, extremely high for a reliever. In fact, Selma’s 1970 WAR was higher than that of any of nine relievers that won the Cy Young Award. See the comparison below.
WAR is a controversial statistic, and few serious onlookers consider it the end all and be all when it comes to measuring performance. However, a surprisingly high or low WAR suggests that the top line statistics may not be telling the whole story. Selma was a workhorse. He pitched 134 innings over 73 games, all in relief. That might explain Selma’s high WAR compared to one-inning closers like Bedrosian and Eckersley. But his 1970 WAR was also considerably higher than Mike Marshall in 1974, even though Marshall pitched an amazing 208 innings over 106 games that year.
Selma finished second that year (to CYA winner Bob Gibson) in Win Probability Added, a more reliever-friendly statistic. Some statistics also look better in context. Selma’s good 2.75 ERA looks even better when you consider the League ERA that year was over 4.00 and Tom Seaver led the league with 2.82. (Selma needed 28 more innings to qualify.) Selma also averaged 10.3 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched, highest in the National League. No one else in the League was above 9.0. His 153 strikeouts that year set a National League record for relievers that stood until 2004. The ability to strike out a batter helps to get a team out of a jam.
Shutting Down the Big Red Machine
One such jam occurred on August 25, 1970, in a game against the Cincinnati Reds. This was the Big Red Machine’s breakout season, as they posted 102 wins. Selma entered the game in the top of the tenth with the score tied and with Bobby Tolan on first and Pete Rose on second. He would face Tony Perez, Johnny Bench, and Lee May. Perez and Bench were future Hall of Famers having career years. May was another dangerous hitter who slugged 34 homers that year. Perez struck out. Bench popped out. After a wild pitch put runners on second and third, May grounded out to end the inning. Selma pitched two more shutout innings as the Phillies won in the bottom of the twelfth.
The Phillies didn’t use Selma to maximize his saves. He made 49 multiple-inning appearances and appeared 31 times with runners on base. He pitched 12 times in tie games and 12 more when the Phillies were one run behind. Compare this to a couple of relief standouts from 2008. Francisco Rodríguez recorded a record 62 saves but had zero multiple inning appearances. He entered the game with runners on base only ten times. Rodriguez entered the game five times when the game was tied and never when his team fell behind. Brad Lidge converted a perfect 41 of 41 save opportunities. But he only once entered the game with men on base and had zero multiple inning appearances.
Not Just Selma
Selma wasn’t the Phillies’ only strong reliever that year. Joe Hoerner went 9-5 with a 2.65 ERA and 9 saves. Hoerner was more of a situational pitcher who threw only 57 innings in 44 games. He was especially tough against lefties, who batted only .194 against him. Hoerner finished with a WAR of 2.4, higher than any other National League reliever besides Selma.
Selma got hurt the following year and was never the same. He pitched only 24 innings in 1971 and had ERAs above 5.00 from 1972 through 1974, before retiring. Hoerner had more success. He went 4-5 in 1971, with a 1.97 ERA, 9 saves and a 2.7 WAR (fourth among relievers). His performance was spottier after that, but Hoerner finished with a career ERA of 2.99 over 14 seasons.
A Faustian Bargain?
Selma’s 1970 season bears some resemblance to Steve Stone’s memorable 1980 season. As with Selma, Stone spent most of his career as a solid but unspectacular pitcher. He burst out in 1980, finishing 25-7 and winning the Cy Young Award. More than half his pitches were curves, and it ruined his arm. Stone knew the tradeoff and preferred one great season to a string of so-so ones. Did Selma make a similar tradeoff in 1970? Pitching more and throwing harder led to one great season but took something out of him. I doubt there was an intentional tradeoff. The 32-year-old Stone might have figured that this was his last chance to grab the brass ring. Selma was only 26 in 1970 and pitching relief for a losing team isn’t a sure road to glory. More likely, Selma’s manager used his best pitcher as much as he could and didn’t pay a lot of attention to longer term consequences.
Unfortunate Timing?
I’ve long considered the strong performance of the 1970 Phillies bullpen as a case of unfortunate timing. Why waste an outstanding relief staff on a losing team? Now I’m not so sure. The 1970 Phillies overachieved in some respects. The team had a batting average of .238 with only one player hitting more than 20 homers. The four principal starters finished with losing records and ERAs over 4.00. Still, the team won 73 games compared to an average of only 65 wins for other seasons between 1969 and 1973. The team performed well in close games, winning eight more than their Pythagorean Winning Percentage implied. At the time, each league had only two divisions and no wild cards, so only a few teams had legitimate shots to make the postseason. The strong bullpen at least gave the long-suffering Phillies fans a more competitive team.